Handbook on Tourism Forecasting Methodologies

Publication Year   2008
ISBN                  978-92-990050-0-2
Online Date         13 October 2008
Language            English

Price: EUR 45.00 (+ P&P for printed version)

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Tourism demand is a complex phenomenon which can be affected by an incredible number of different exogenous factors – economy, fuel prices, infrastructure, prices, natural disasters, the image of a destination, etc. Because of all of these and many other factors, tourism demand, in all of its different forms, is one of the most difficult variables to foresee. Nonetheless, it is more and more important for destinations and private sector alike to anticipate demand trends and use such knowledge as a basis of management decisions and planning. 

The ETC/UNWTO Handbook on Tourism Forecasting Methodologies aims to be a simple guide to the complex world of tourism forecasting. It presents the basic forecasting techniques, their advantages and disadvantages as well as some practical examples of such methodologies in action. It also includes a CD where the forecasting methodologies are further explained and exemplified in an excel file.

Table of Contents

• Foreword
• Acknowledgements
• What Is Tourism Forecasting and How to Do It?
• What Is Forecasting?
• What to Forecast?
• Quantitative versus Qualitative Forecasting
• Time Scale, Time Series and Data Collection
• Basic Descriptions of Forecasting Methods
• Simple Extrapolative Methods
• No-change Extrapolation Method
• Single Moving Average Extrapolation Method
• Exponential Smoothing Extrapolation Method
• Decomposition Methods
• Simple Extrapolative Methods – Conclusions o Advanced Extrapolative Methods
• Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Method
• Causal Models
• Linear Regression
• Multiple Regression Method
• Structural Econometric Methods
• Qualitative Forecasting Methods
• Jury of Executive Opinion
• The Delphi Method
• Scenario Planning
• Mixtures of Methods
• Comparing the Performance of Different Methods
• Choosing a Forecasting Methodology
• Getting Started
• Resource Constraints
• Choosing an Appropriate General Methodology
• Choosing a Specific Forecasting Method
• Case Studies
• List of Boxes, Figures and Tables, List of Acronyms
• Glossary
• Bibliography