As we enter the second half of 2009, there is growing optimism at the emergence of so-called 'green shoots', but there is a risk that this optimism will prove premature. Output is still falling in most of the industrialised world.

Air passenger demand continues to fall, but the double-digit declines seen in the first quarter have slowed to 7-8%. The lodging sector has also seen the falloff slow, with year-to-date declines in occupancy rates moderating over the past two months. Yet the trend remains worryingly negative.

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